'...not merely in managing fiscal mathematics, but in demonstrating conservatism and prudence within that framework.' 'Looking forward, we believe sufficient growth drivers exist -- ranging from government reforms to revival in consumption to favourable monsoons. Numerous factors support the Indian economy.'
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
India's top IT services firms delivered single-digit revenue growth in April-June, capping off a mixed, somewhat-sobering quarter as macroeconomic instability and geopolitical tensions weighed on global tech demand and delayed client decisionmaking. Management commentary painted a mixed picture, caution prevailed, yet industry CEOs also emphasised cost optimisation, vendor consolidation, and opportunities in AI makeovers.
Among Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India, Infosys, Adani Ports and ITC were the major gainers. However, Eternal, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance and Bharat Electronics were among the major laggards.
India's largest IT services firm Tata Consultancy Services on Thursday reported a 1.68 per cent dip in its consolidated net profit to Rs 12,224 crore for the March 2025 quarter. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) - whose earnings marked the official start of IT results season - reported a total revenue of Rs 64,479 crore in Q4 FY25, up 5.3 per cent over the year-ago period.
Gold future prices sustained upward trend for the fourth straight session by surging Rs 2,048 to hit a fresh record high of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams as investors rushed to safe havens after US President Donald Trump indicated plans to overhaul Federal Reserve amid continuing global trade war jitters. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the August delivery contract of the yellow metal bounced by Rs 2,048 or 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh peak of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams in the mid-session trade.
Hyundai aims to raise exports to 30% of output by FY30 as domestic sales slow; six EVs among 26 product launches planned as part of long-term growth strategy.
While the economy will wait for a rate cut in December, the banking industry should be happy with the wave of liberalisation -- a big push for growth in bank credit, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
'The statistical confidence bands of the fan charts of the forecasts will provide a better sense of the potential variability of outcomes.'
In an event-heavy week, stock investors will track quarterly earnings of several bluechip firms, the likely outcome of ongoing India-US trade talks, and inflation data for market cues, analysts said on Sunday. Moreover, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also guide movement in equities, they said.
India's real GDP growth in FY26 will slide further to 6.2 per cent in FY26 from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. In a research report, Nomura said there is a "divergence" between the growth in GST collections and across other high-frequency growth indicators like auto sales and bank credit growth.
'If the near-term economic pain is absorbed more by those who have the ability and the financial strength to do so, then small and medium enterprises in downstream industries will emerge stronger from the trade imbroglio.'
Investors should be mindful of the high volatility in cryptos: Bitcoin has fallen more than 80 per cent in past corrections.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
With the RBI infusing Rs 7.5 lakh crore in liquidity -- and possibly more in the future -- the short- to medium-term corporate bond market is expected to benefit.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
Singapore's state investor Temasek Holdings, which recently picked up 10 per cent stake in Haldiram, has been consistently expanding its footprint in India while slowly withdrawing from China over the last three years amid growing geopolitical risks and economic headwinds. India has become Temasek's third-largest market, after Singapore (27 per cent) and China (18 per cent), with its exposure to the country higher than the rest of Asia Pacific excluding the three (11 per cent), according to Temasek's annual review.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
The information technology (IT) services industry may be headed for another year of sluggish growth. Based on the results of the top five IT services companies for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), analysts say the possibility of hitting high single-digit revenue growth in FY26 looks unlikely.
Among Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, NTPC, Infosys, Nestle, Sun Pharma, and Tata Steel were the major laggards. Eternal, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries and Bajaj Finserv were the gainers.
Titan, HCL Tech and State Bank of India were also among the laggards. However, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HDFC Bank and ITC were the gainers.
Gold prices are expected to witness further consolidation in the coming week as investors brace for a slew of events, ranging from central bank meetings, including the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome, to global trade negotiations, analysts said.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the country's economy is an island of stability despite two Black Swan events and multiple shocks. "In an ocean of high turbulence and uncertainty, Indian economy is an island of macroeconomic and financial stability," Das told reporters during the post policy press conference. He said the financial stability, macroeconomic stability and resilience of growth is being witnessed despite two Black Swan events happening one after the other and multiple shocks.
Equity investors would track global market trends, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues this week, analysts said. Moreover, progress of monsoon and developments related to trade talks would also be monitored by investors, experts noted.
Indian stock markets have experienced some ups and downs in the first half of 2025. However, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex saw steady gains, supported by a healthy economy and better corporate earnings. In this article, we will look at the detailed performance of these key indices and explore the sectors that drove the market rally.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
Brave statements such as we will continue to be the fastest growing large country are of no consolation, because the direction of trade also determines the flow of investment, points out M Govinda Rao.
The US Fed interest rate decision, global trends, tariff-related developments and trading activity of foreign investors will drive the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Among macroeconomic data announcement, WPI inflation for February is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
